Important Forecasts in the Payments Industry

We have been asked by people as to what numbers to look at for gaining insights on the progress that the payments industry is making day by day. There are a number of sources which cite such these elusive numbers. Hence, we wanted to help our readers; what we did here is an attempt at triangulation. We have aggregated information on some limited aspects from the payments industry and have compared the numbers presented (pertaining to the US market). Here are the factors under consideration:

US Mobile Proximity Payment Transaction Volume

Mobile proximity payments represent those transactions where mobile phones are used at the point-of-sale (POS) in lieu of cards or cash.

Both Aite Group and eMarketer have estimated this figure to be in the range of $3-4 billion. For 2015, both predict that the number would end up in the range of $7-9 billion. Estimated have also been made by the two organisations and has been cited to be in the range of $22-28 billion.

US Retail Mcommerce Sales

These sales figures represent those achieved via use of mobile phones as a channel for online commerce transactions.

eMarketer and GrowthPraxis have predicted that by 2017, the mcommerce sales figure in US would cross the $100-billion mark and has been predicted to be in the range of $110-120 billion.

NFC POS Terminal Base

This terminal base represents those POS systems which support NFC-based payment systems such as Apple Pay.

GrowthPraxis has predicted that NFC terminals in the US will reach 55% POS penetration by the end of 2018. By the end of 2015, GrowthPraxis predicts that the terminal base would reach 1.25 million in the US. By 2019, GrowthPraxis expects that number to cross the 9-million mark. By the end of 2015, the penetration of NFC POS terminals is expected to be around 7% as compared to 40% for 2019.

For the US, Berg Insight predicts that terminal base to reach 1.5 million units by the end of the year. As a result of the momentum built-up last year, the researcher forecasts that the installed base of NFC terminals will expand at an annual rate of 28.4% till the end of 2019.